Zenit (-5.0) vs ALBA Berlin 157.5
Tuesday was Billy Baron day, he came through at low ownership with 27 points. His box score? 24 points 2 fouls. His price is not bad today but can he get again the same numbers to think of him as a guy who can break the slate today? That being said, he’s most definitely not out of play, but increased popularity and salary is enough to take him out of the “smash” play category for me.
Kevin Pangos (12m) has double-double upside every time out, so I wouldn’t fault you for playing him, especially against an ALBA team that cedes the most points and assists to opposing guards. I’ll have some shares but he likely won’t make my top 3-5 plays in terms of ownership.
Arturas Gudaitis (11.5m) got the start last game and on top of having a good performance, got some extra run with Alex Poythress (11.6m) in foul trouble. Gudaitis is a great play if he starts again and still a good one if he returns to the bench.
Poythress, I would have a high interest in if he starts, as I don’t think it will take much to get over the field today.
Will Thomas is just sort of meh for me, his price hasn’t dropped significantly like others after a poor stretch. The definition of a low secondary play for me today, he’s putting up three fewer shot attempts per game as compared to last season.
Mateusz Ponitka (8m), K.C. Rivers (8.9m – can get hot), or Austin Hollins (8.5m – scoring dependent) are also in paly.
I dislike playing ALBA plain and simple.
However, Luke Sikma (11.2m) has been picking up the fantasy scoring pace a bit over the last three or four rounds. If you think this game stays close I like the play a lot more than a run-away result, which ALBA is known to fall victim to.
Peyton Siva (10m) returned to action in a bench role last game. He’s just hands down a better fantasy player than his price, and if he starts I will have a good amount of Siva.
The other playable options on the roster for me are Simone Fontecchio (9.8m) and Ben Lammers (8.3m – started last two).
Priority Plays: Gudaitis (assuming another start), Baron, Pangos
Secondary Plays: Sikma, Siva, Poythress, Ponitka, Lammers, Fontecchio, Rivers, Hollins
Zalgiris vs Olimpia Milan (-5.5) 155.0
Marius Grigonis is fifth in the EL in scoring average, and he’s been in the winning GPP lineup a few times this season. At 11.2m today he is firmly in play at the guard position, coming off a Tuesday game that saw him eclipse 30 points in just 22 minutes due to foul trouble.
I’m off Thomas Walkup (10.5m) again, I preferred to attack him at a lower price tag with Rokas Jokubaitis (8.8m) out a few rounds back. Walkup can certainly get on top of that price, I just prefer the cheaper guard options on this team.
I’m never really a fan of playing Nigel Hayes (9.9m) but his price and ceiling keep him in GPP consideration. I’d rather go with Joffrey Lauvergne (10.1m) if I’m looking for Forward exposure from Zalgiris, but as you can tell it’s not my favorite place to go this afternoon.
AXM is the toughest team to figure out today in my estimation.
They added both Kevin Punter (9m) and Malcolm Delaney (12.3m) back to the rotation last game, along with welcoming back Vlad Micov (10.8m) the round before.
If Punter starts again then he’s a strong value play at guard. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malcolm Delaney get back into the starting lineup over Sergio Rodriguez (13.2m) today, as this was the case before Delaney’s ankle injury.
Shavon Shields (11.5m) got a price hike and he’s a low-end secondary play for me today.
I’d rather look to Zach LeDay for10m, or Micov even off the bench.
I prefer the cheaper guys on this team due to all the changes to the rotation.
Priority Plays: Grigonis, Delaney (if starting), Micov, LeDay
Secondary Plays: Punter, Walkup, Shields, Rodriguez, Jokubaitis, Lauvergne, Hayes
Crvena Zvezda vs Barcelona (-12.5) 151.5
Jordan Lloyd (13.7m) day wasn’t too kind to us earlier this week. Even shooting 60% couldn’t overcome the fact that he had his lowest shot attempts of the season. I’m on board playing him in any amount you see fit today, he should get back to 15+ shot attempts and his team will need a big game from him to keep Barca within striking distance. The blowout factor worries me slightly, but this is the EL’s leading scorer we’re talking about. I cannot fade him completely while running multiple lineups.
Johnny O’Bryant (11.2m) is likely to be my highest owned CZV player today. You can go to Corey Walden at 10.5m, but if it’s not Lloyd who I roster from the CZV guards, I’ll probably go to Langston Hall at 9.8m for the savings rather than Walden.
Barca is huge favorites again and because they’ve been running teams out of the gym lately (winning their last two games by a total of 78 points), some of the key players are priced very high.
Nick Calathes (14.1) has been picking teams apart, but he’s lost minutes to blowouts. He’s way too expensive for that risk but we can’t predict blowouts but the higher chance we see one keeps him from being a lock for me.
Alex Abrines (10.1m) is in a similar boat with his recent minutes, and if the game stays close we’re gonna want to be over the field.
Nikola Mirotic is priced at 15m, but I still prefer him as my favorite spend up today. He’s the best fantasy producer by far on the slate and again, if he gets full minutes he will hit a ceiling we’ll need today.
If you think the game blows out I like shares of Rolands Smits (9.2m) who has proven his ceiling at this price in the past two garbage-time runs he’s received (he also had a great performance starting for Mirotic earlier this season).
Brandon Davies (11.2m) is an interesting play in non-Mirotic lineups.
Priority Plays: Mirotic, Calathes, Lloyd, Abrines, O’Bryant
Secondary Plays: Davies, Smits, Hall, Walden
Fenerbahce Istanbul vs Real Madrid (-10.0) 157.5
Who would have known that Nando DeColo’s absence could tank a team so badly? Since his injury three games ago, Fenerbahce has lost by 18 and 42 points.
If you think they can pull it together today and compete for 40 minutes, you’ll want significant exposure to Lorenzo Brown (11.3m) and Jan Vesely (12.1m). They’ve been disappointing, to say the least over the last two rounds, but they’ll likely carry lower ownership than they should in the case of a close game in the fourth quarter.
I’m fine if you fit in Dyshawn Pierre (8.2m) or Jarrell Eddie (9m), they can both produce enough for us at the price on the right day. You can also consider Kenan Sipahi (7.2m) if you enjoy dumpster dives. He just played his first EL game for the club last round and put up 9 shots in 14 minutes. He’s averaged a little over 10 pts in 13 min per game if you were to look at his 8 domestic league appearances for Fenerbahce this season.
The Campazzo question will be key today. It was finally reported on Thursday morning that after months of speculation, Facundo Campazzo (13m) will be coming stateside to the NBA, with Denver as the favorite to land his services. If he doesn’t start, I’ll full fade him on the off chance he does sit. But if he remains a starter (and from what I read this is expected), I don’t see why he wouldn’t play the same 30+ minutes he’s received since returning to the lineup three games ago.
Walter Tavares (10.5m) showed last game why he’s worth some ownership when he’s around this price. One of the best shot blocker’s in the EL, he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry.
The price continues to climb on Anthony Randolph (10m) but He’s by no means out of play but I think I’ll end up under the field.
Gabriel Deck (7.7m) was the surprise on Wednesday when he hit a massive 28 points at a cheaper than today’s price. I’m most likely going to play him when he fits in as the last man in.
The cheapest play I’ve ever written up is Carlos Alocen at 4.6m. He’s a 19-year-old prospect that’s played 10 minutes a game in four EL appearances this year, including two starts. If he somehow starts today I’ll have some shares, otherwise, I’ll play him in one or two of my lineups to get cute.
Priority Plays: Campazzo, Vesely, Tavares, Brown
Secondary Plays: Randolph, Deck, Eddie, Pierre, Sipahi,
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Valencia (-3.0) 161.5
Tel Aviv had a tough time with Real last round and they should be juiced up and ready to put up a better fight today. All three of the main guards are in play, and just like last game I slightly prefer spending down to Tyler Dorsey (10.2m) and Elijah Bryant (10.4m) over Scottie Wilbekin (13m) all the way up top. All three have shown tournament-winning upside at some point this season and I prefer them Dorsey>Wilbekin>Bryant but Bryant is a very close third. You can also look to Chris Jones for a cheaper value at 9.5m.
Ante Zizic (11.8m) had his highest minutes output of the season (26) last game and if he gets close to that again it’s hard not to have some shares of him even at what is his highest price point on the year.
I have some interest in Othello Hunter (10.6m) in his second game back outfitted with his new mask. He only saw 13 in his return but he averages 20 on the season and I think he is a nice upside play in that range.
Angelo Caloairo is down to 9.8m after being more expensive three weeks ago. I have no issue with you playing him if he fits your build.
Don’t play Dragan Bender.
Another team I’m never really high on, Valencia doesn’t break that mold today.
Kremen Prepelic (10m) has done well with the increased opportunity he’s seen lately due to some injuries down the roster.
His price is up from where it started this season, but he’s produced at about 1 fppm this season, so I can’t fully fade him if he’s going to play high 20’s in minutes.
I just prefer others in that price range, and he will be a part of my more balanced builds.
Derrick Williams (9m) has been getting more minutes with the recent injuries for Valencia and he’s turning in some notable performances for our purposes. As long as VBC is missing the same guys as last game, I’m fine with a Williams to play off the bench if he fits into your build.
I have to see more from Bojan Dublijevic before I roster him at 12m.